The NZIER has pared back its growth forecasts yet again in its latest projections.
With the European debt crisis intensifying and, with it, global uncertainty, the NZIER says interest rates are likely to remain low, and our recovery is expected to be lower and last longer.
Its Consensus Forecast, released this afternoon, tips economic growth in the March 2012 year at 1.2 percent (down from from 1.8), accelerating to 2.1 percent in 2013 (down from 2.7) and 3.1 percent in 2014 (down from 3.2).
The Canterbury rebuild, likewise, is projected to start later and take longer, as it is being delayed by uncertainty over the building code and insurance settlements, further holding up an economic rebound. There is a wide range of forecasts for residential construction, reflecting uncertainties in forecasting the extent and timing of the rebuild.